Ongoing Attempts, August 15, 2024: Two MLB trends we probably saw coming

Baseball is unpredictable. That is the case from one season to the next, just as it is from one month to the next or from one game to the next in a three-game series.

When compared with other sports, such as football or basketball, baseball's projections are stickier and more reliable because of the long regular season. There is a larger sample size and more data available. These systems yield plenty of projections that play out exactly as expected.

For example, from a quick glance at the 2024 standings: the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees are great. The Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies stink. Many of the teams battling through mediocrity are in the middle just like they were supposed to be.

Baseball isn't a math problem, of course, and there are still human beings who go play the games. So even with more projections that come true, there are still surprises. Once those surprises show themselves, we all get to watch and guess which surprises are a real deviation from the projections and which will ultimately end up where we expected.

In terms of surprises that have come back to center in recent weeks, I would argue that two of these teams are headed exactly where we thought they would this season.

They are who we thought they were

At one point this season, there were two teams that were counted among the surprises with their respective spots in the standings.

• The New York Mets had freed themselves from mediocrity and surged into the playoff race.

• The Houston Astros were hurt and underachieving, dwelling in fourth place in the AL West.

Having gone in opposite directions in recent weeks, these teams both find themselves in a much different place as the regular season winds down. Granted, the Mets are still just 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot, but their recent struggles have pushed them down into the clump of teams fighting for that final playoff berth.

This is where that sense of inevitability comes in, with the Mets a famously sad franchise that seems to always fall apart. For as long as there has been such a thing as a "meme," the Mets have been one. "Mets gonna Met," "LOL Mets," and so on.

That's the reason it's easy to look at their results in August - with series losses to the Angels, the Rockies, and the A's - and think that the typical Mets crash is underway. Rational or not, it feels like it's extra work for the Mets to correct their course than it would be for a different team. It also puts them more in the neighborhood of the middle-of-the-pack projections for them before the season (and even in-season).

On the other end of the spectrum, you have the Astros, projected atop the AL West pre-season as you would expect. After their rough start, Joe Posnanski noted a couple times that anytime you looked at the AL West standings and saw the gap shrinking between them and the first place Seattle Mariners, you could hear the Jaws music playing in your head.

Sure enough, we now find the Astros in first place after winning nine of their last 10 games. And just like the Mets, it feels like the Mariners will have to work that much harder to make up a couple games in the standings and reclaim the top spot in the AL West. Worth noting: there's likely only going to be one team from that division in the playoffs this year.

The Astros are good. The Mets are falling apart. Even with some twists and turns this season, at least we were able to count on those two stories to have things make sense.

Great players who won't win MVP

The Cleveland Guardians fly under the radar, even as a first place team that has been dominant for multiple stretches this season. With his team getting less attention, José Ramírez continues to put up outstanding numbers that might go unnoticed by the majority of fans.

His line so far this season: .279/.334/.543 with 32 home runs, 100 RBI, and 29 stolen bases. Ramírez will cruise to another 30/30 season, and another 40/40 season is in play.

He does everything offensively. He plays good defense. In a season where there weren’t two Yankees with MVP numbers, he might be the runaway MVP. Although those two young gun shortstops - Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt, Jr. - might also have something to say about that.

In a manner befitting how his playing days have gone, I imagine we will be talking about Ramírez as a Hall of Fame candidate one day. And people will go, “Oh, that’s right! He was great.”

As for the National League, the MVP race isn’t nearly as crowded. It will be noteworthy in a different way if Shohei Ohtani pulls it off and wins the award as a full-time designated hitter. If not Ohtani, I am assuming it goes in the direction of another big name like Bryce Harper.

Maybe it isn’t fair to assume. Maybe this player will get his due and maybe even get some MVP votes. Because, boy oh boy, have you seen what Arizona Diamondbacks’ second baseman Ketel Marte is up to this season?

The headline on that page? 6.0 WAR, a full win ahead of the aforementioned Ramírez. Marte is slashing .298/.370/.560 with 30 home runs of his own. A guy who burst onto the national scene during Arizona’s run to the World Series last season, Marte is following that up with a truly elite season.

Big stars in big markets will likely take home the MVP trophies, and they are all deserving. But it’s fun to appreciate the great work of lesser known players, especially since these same guys will try to shine in the playoffs.

• The final game in the Oakland Coliseum is officially sold out, in what should be an interesting combination of celebrating the good times and booing the heck out of the dumb, half-baked plan that’s taking the team away.

• Jose Canseco was inducted into the A’s Hall of Fame, which is easy to dismiss or make fun about, but hey, if it’s something nice for those fans, let them have it.

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has enjoyed a resurgence in 2024, establishing himself again as one of the fun players in baseball, even as the Blue Jays have floundered and disappointed.

• There are some other players having great seasons who are worthy of potential MVP notes, as Matt Snyder writes over at CBS.

In the spirit of celebrating Vlad Jr.’s fun season, here’s a video of him getting seven hits in a game.

Until next week, I hope everyone ends up exactly where they thought they would be, unless that place feels like where the Mets usually end up.

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