Ongoing Attempts, May 30, 2024: Could pitching actually move away from max velocity?

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The current moment might be the peak of maximum velocity in Major League Baseball. Turn on any MLB game on any given day, no matter the two teams, and you are guaranteed to see multiple pitchers touching 97+ MPH with their fastballs.

That’s no exaggeration. Between the number of pitchers with that kind of velocity and the manner in which teams use their bullpen, you will see some heat. A common experience watching baseball in 2024 is to see a pitcher you’ve never heard of and then marvel at how nasty his stuff is.

If you like pitching, it’s a great time. But this era of dominant pitching has also produced some concerns. MLB wants to increase offense and has put its thumb on the scale in that effort with some rule changes. This season has also seen something of a culmination, at least in terms of public perception, when it comes to the arm injuries that result from the value teams have placed on max velocity.

Baseball history is full of cycles and trends. Players and teams adjust and re-adjust. So, might we be approaching a change when it comes to how pitchers approach their craft?

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Out with max velocity, in with the kitchen sink?

In a piece that focused on Logan Webb, David Schoenfield asked a simple question: what would happen if pitchers didn’t throw as hard?

The answers, at least in the form of guys like Webb and Seth Lugo, can feel quite appealing. Pitchers would refocus on movement and location. The art of pitching would return. It wouldn’t just be a bunch of two-pitch guys who can fire up to the upper 90s with their fastball.

Within that same week, there was a piece on Baseball Prospectus by Timothy Jackson called, “The Return of the Kitchen Sink.” That’s not necessarily related to the first item, but I think there might be a potential connection. It is also worth noting that the pitchers who have a “kitchen sink” repertoire, made up of four or more pitches, are not necessarily successful or on good teams.

So it’s not a straight line, but I see a connection that raises some questions: will pitching start to shift away from the current trend of maximum velocity? As hitters catch up to fastballs and pitcher injuries mount, I wonder if there won’t be a swing back towards pitching that emphasizes craftiness, location, and movement at the expense of high-end velocity.

If there is a change afoot, it will be slow. We will still see an abundance of fastball/slider guys firing off scary fastballs. But I think this is worth monitoring, and maybe even cheering for guys like Webb and Lugo.

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